News & Research Archive

Pulse Of The Market (Pulse 88 - Seven Sisters Update)

Feb 08, 2011

 

A Year Ago

A year ago on February 18th I hosted 35 Bay Area agents for a ½ day visit to three upper-end residential buildings in San Francisco’s south of Market St. neighborhood. We started with a visit to #5304 at One Rincon Hill, then had lunch at 41B in Tower Two at the Infinity, and finished with coffee and dessert at The Millennium sales office.

During my opening remarks, I mentioned that there was $500 million of available inventory at these three buildings. Here we are a year later. Notwithstanding the trying times, sales at each of these buildings have done well in the last 12 months.

One Rincon Hill, with a total 0f 390 units, had roughly 80 units for sale last year at this time. Unit #5304, where we started our tour with champagne and hors d’oeuvres, was listed for $2,865,000. Today there are less than 35 unsold units and #5304 is still available and now listed for $2,640,000. It sports dramatic views of the Bay and Bay Bridge. It will be a good place to watch the upcoming America’s Cup races.

We had lunch at 41 B at the Infinity (650 units in four buildings). Back then, there were about 40 units available. Unit 41 B was listed in February 2010 for $7,350,000; today it is available for $5,100,000, and it is the only developer owned unit available on the MLS today. It has unobstructed views of the Bay, the Bay Bridge, and dead-on Treasure Island views that will only get better, particularly at nighttime as Treasure Island is developed.

We finished up at the Millennium (419 units). In February 2010 they had sold  about one-quarter of the building; today they are almost half sold.  

 One Rincon HillInfinityMillennium

    One Rincon Hill                      Infinity                    Millennium

 

What about the Other Seven Sisters?

Both 2009 and 2010 were difficult years for the residential real estate market, as you know. Although we suffered in San Francisco, we suffered far less than many other parts of the Bay Area or the country in general. Though One Rincon Hill, the Infinity, and the Millennium are too new to assess overall performance, we do have some data on the other Seven Sisters since 2007, the height of the market.

The Four Seasons condominiums appear to have held value the best, declining only 4% from 2007 through 2010. This is on an average dollars/per square foot basis. Unit prices at the St. Regis declined about 23% from 2007 through 2010 while Brannan prices declined an average of 20% during the same period. There were too few sales at the Ritz Carlton to make any meaningful assessment. The superior performance of the Four Seasons is probably a result of it being the first high-end hotel with condominiums in the City and its ability to attract a more established clientele than the St. Regis or the Brannan or the Ritz Carlton. There is evidence that the Four Seasons has experienced considerably less turnover than the others.

In Other News

Without fanfare or public announcement, Bosa Development has commenced construction of the second phase of Radiance condominiums in Mission Bay. I suspect that they will start their marketing in early 2012. Also in early 2012, Tishman Speyer will likely break ground at the southwest corner of Main and Folsom, which is currently used as a parking lot by the U.S. Postal Service. The development will be another 650 units, similar to the Infinity. The One Rincon Hill folks are a bit further behind in starting construction of their second tower. These three developments will add about 1,350+ new units to the existing inventory of some 10,000 condominiums south of Market Street, including Mission Bay.

As you undoubtedly know, the America's Cup is coming to San Francisco. There will be regattas sailed in July and August 2013 and the final race series will be September 7-22, 2013. The pictures below should provide some perspective as to where things will happen.

    

Image:©2010 Americascup.com

Image: ©2011 americascup.com/Photo: Chuck Lantz

There is a host of information at the America’s Cup official website. 

Written by: Malcolm E.A. Kaufman

E-mail: mkaufman@pulsefactors.com


Starboard TCN is posting this article on its website and blog with Malcolm E.A. Kaufman's approval.

Malcolm E.A. Kaufman is Founder of PulseFactors™ LLC. He refers you to his website, pulsefactors.com, where you can see recent issues of Pulse of the Market© and learn more about him. He invites your comments, suggestions, and questions.

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